Explanations of Nuptiality during the first industrial revolution in England
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Spread rural industry, chance incidence of service in husbandry – rise nuptiality second half 18^th century and beginning of the 19^th century.

Did population grow in response to demands of an expanding economy?

Wrigley and Schofield: fertility dominant influence on population growth rates in 18^th century England – nuptiality changes accounted almost entirely for the great increase in fertility.

Did nuptiality raise with demand for labour?

Rise demand for labour affects nuptiality two ways:: rise in real wages or shift from agric. Occupations which encouraged late marriages to industrial occupations such as handloom weaving favour early ones.

Real wages increase – more savings-feeling to get married – ignores IR as based on agric – late 18^th century British popn. Rose but real wages declined – Wrigley Schofield think time lag.

Movement from in-farm labour and development of rural industry lower age marriage – servants single so decline live-in farm labour reduces employment opps before marriage curtailed ability and motivation single people to save money for marriage – downward pressure on age of marriage.

Determinants of Marriage

1. Availability of Mates – determined sex ratio of persons of marriageable age
2. Feasibility of Marriage – function of resources necessary to set up a household
3. Desirability of Marriage – social and institutional alternatives to marriages considered rewarding

Sex ratio – migration men lead migration, internal migration not strong enough yet

Resources: saving or inheritance so mortality may affect age as timing of inheritances and competition for siblings for shares – few people money so more likely amount of savings than inheritance. Real wages low – long time accumulate savings

Wrigley and Schofield’s argument

Major changes in real wages seem to have predated major changes in nuptiality by at least a generation

Enclosures may have diminished the desire and the capacity of single people to save for marriage (would have saved for goats, sheep etc)

Employment in all sectors grew so feasibility of more households / savings- more marriage.

Few alternatives: service was single but did have a high standard of living, defer marriage for this high standard of living.

Service husbandry beginning disappear 1827 select Committee – less to lose from marriage. Service not constant over time it was less common in periods of high nuptiality.

Why service decline:

-         decline livestock farming

-         fall in real wages – cattle raising for year round, winter break for cereal farming – shift to cereal farming general decline service in husbandry.

Real wages thought to influence nuptiality positively –also have a negative impact – periods high inflation and real wage falls, living costs were high, farmers often preferred to pay money wages exclusively instead of providing bed and board.

Data and Variables

Model 1651 to 1835

Modeling trends in Nuptiality

Effect of a lagged real-wage index is minimal – sign of the effect of real wages is negative – effect of real wages on nuptiality through the incidence of service is stronger than the effect through the economic feasibility of marriage.

Positive effect of mortality on feasibility of marriage (inheritance) seems to dominate

Rise in Nuptiality

Nuptiality rise 1750 to 1815 – decline relative size agricultural labour force or decline farm size?

Real wages used + and ANG (seasonality of marriage influenced nuptiality through incidence of farm service) also remained constant at average level for whole period – model predict smaller rise after 1780

Rise in nuptiality after 1780 associated with decline in degree of marriage seasonality – which in turn suggests a decline in relative size of agricultural labour force – spread rural industry 1780 (rise imported cotton)

Rise in nuptiality in 2^nd half of 18^th and first quarter of the 19^th century complex phenomenon caused sudden boom rural industrialization (affects economic feasibility of marriage) decline in farm service, affects desirability of marriages or availability short term alternatives to marriage

Nuptiality declines after 1820 – no decline before 1830s if real wages had not increases and crude mortality rate dropped.

Shift to non-agricultural occupations inc. rural industry in 2^nd half 17^th century appears to have enabled more people to get married – not necessarily at a younger age – after 1780s = spread of industry tended to encourage earlier marriage rather than more marriages.

Rise late 18^th early 19^th century associated with unprecedented demand for rural manufactured caused by 1^st Industrial revolution – IR alone may not account for 18^th century rise – decline incid3ence service husbandry may have been an additional reason.

Kussmaul’s measure proxy for size agricultural labour force NOT relative rural-industrial labour force – turning point is 1780s – recruitment handloom weavers and other rural-industrial workers may have been behind the decline in agric. Labour force after 1780.

Model explains decline nuptiality between 1820 and 1830 rise in real wages and decline mortality – continued decline post 1830 may be surge incidence of domestic service – could domestic service have recovered some of the ground lost by farm service? By mid 19^th century domestic service important determinant of nuptiality.

Rise fertility 2^nd half 18^th century associated with IR

Classic demographic theory sees dev. Urban industrial society to be precondition for fertility decline – results here show IR caused fertility to increase

Textile industry demand for handloom weavers new spinning machines stimulated spread rural industry – influencing feasibility of marriage through lower set-up costs

Rural industry also spread on continent in 18^th century not in response to I

-         age of marriage on continent not repsonsive growth rural industry – no evidence spread rural industry 17^th century responsible for early marriages

Swing toward early marriage in England after 1780 related to rural industry spread NOT before

Huge demand for handloom weavers and framework knitters created by IR in England explain different experience – couples northern England cash in on increased wages provided by rural manufacturing – causing age at first marriage to drop

Influence of rural industry on age at first marriage in England after 1780 was due primarily to improved prospects after marriage – not to low set-up costs.

Other Notes in this Category

1. A History of Oppida
2. A Tudor revolution in government?
3. British Banking System in the years 1700-90
4. Explanations of Nuptiality during the first industrial revolution in England
5. Has the “retardation” thesis been overthrown by recent mainly cliometric historians?
6. Wage and consumption levels in england and on the continent in the 1830s – paul uselidin
7. Was standard of living higher in britain or in france?
8. Welfare effects of british free trade: debate and evidence from the 1840s
9. What were the effects of tariffs and free trade in the 19^th century?

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